Far and away the Number #1 question I am asked is, “Marsh where is the housing market headed?” or some variation thereof. While I am have always freely given my advice when asked, often contradicting the conventional wisdom (see housing bubble and burst), I have been encouraged to more widely disseminate my views. Contrary to the typical prognosticators in the industry, I perform valuations and market analysis daily. I have my ear to the ground and can recognize pivot points before they are revealed in the national press. Perhaps more important is that my analysis is focused on the Tampa Bay market only. I do not pretend to know what is going on in Las Vegas, I know what is going on here.
Current Trends in Pinellas County as of April 2012
As you can see by the graph above, inventory is continuing to decline. There has been a sharp decline in inventory since December 2011. Average price has remained fairly steady over the past year. If you look at the trend for the past three months, price has been slightly increasing since December.
The graph above shows that monthly sales are following the same trend that they do every year. Sales increased between January 2012 and March 2012 just like they did between January and March of 2011. Sales began to decline in April 2012 just like they did in April 2011.
The average number of days on market has remained fairly steady since January 2012. Inventory started to level off in April 2012.
