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pinellas county real estate market condition

Market Bottom or Beginning of Final Leg Down

In my last newsletter I discussed the sharp drop in available housing inventory and how it has been leading to an increase in the average sale price of residential properties.  The chart below is of Pinellas County and reiterates this fact.  Year over year the total number of sales has increased 16% while the current inventory of homes has decreased almost 42%. The result has been a modest increase in prices of 3.5%.  As depicted in the chart below, the pace of declining inventory and increasing sale price has accelerated in the last six months.  Since the low in February 2011 the average sale price in Pinellas County has increased 22%.  Is this the sign that the housing market has recovered or is there something else at play?

August 2011 Average Sale Price and Current Inventory

It is pretty obvious that the decline in inventory has led directly to this increase, but what about the “Shadow Inventory” we hear so much about?  (more…)

Market Conditions

Far and away the Number #1 question I am asked is, “Marsh where is the housing market headed?” or some variation thereof.  While I am have always freely given my advice when asked, often contradicting the conventional wisdom (see housing bubble and burst), I have been encouraged to more widely disseminate my views.  Contrary to the typical prognosticators in the industry, I perform valuations and market analysis daily.  I have my ear to the ground and can recognize pivot points before they are revealed in the national press.  Perhaps more important is that my analysis is focused on the Tampa Bay market only.  I do not pretend to know what is going on in Las Vegas, I know what is going on here.

What has been most striking over the last several months is the sharp decline in housing inventory and months of supply.  It is very clear that home sales are far out pacing new supply which is driving the average price of a home up sharply.  (more…)