Far and away the Number #1 question I am asked is, “Marsh where is the housing market headed?” or some variation thereof. While I am have always freely given my advice when asked, often contradicting the conventional wisdom (see housing bubble and burst), I have been encouraged to more widely disseminate my views. Contrary to the typical prognosticators in the industry, I perform valuations and market analysis daily. I have my ear to the ground and can recognize pivot points before they are revealed in the national press. Perhaps more important is that my analysis is focused on the Tampa Bay market only. I do not pretend to know what is going on in Las Vegas, I know what is going on here.
What has been most striking over the last several months is the sharp decline in housing inventory and months of supply. It is very clear that home sales are far out pacing new supply which is driving the average price of a home up sharply. (more…)